Trump and Harris are deadlocked - could an October surprise change the game?

 

With one month until election day, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is as close to a bare-knuckle fight as it gets.

Victory will be determined by the narrowest of margins because the presidential election still looks to be tied, both nationally and in battleground states. Every new voter who registers and every undecided voter who is persuaded could contribute to a decisive blow.

According to Rutgers University presidential historian David Greenberg, "a difference of a percentage point or two could be decisive in any extremely close race, where the electorate is divided down the middle."
Party strategists are concerned with gaining that crucial advantage, but the campaign might equally be derailed by an unanticipated turn of events outside their control.
But when the big surprises happen in October (think of Trump's Access Hollywood tape or Hillary Clinton's emails in 2016), there isn't much time for momentum-building or recovery following a mistake or negative news cycle.
There have been a number of fresh rumblings this week alone that, by November 5th, might become political storms.

Already this year, there have been several political shockwaves: President Joe Biden withdrawing from the contest in favor of his much younger vice president, while another contender has survived two assassination attempts and been found guilty of a crime.